BWI: David Cameron is All Set to Win at least 30+ Seats more than the Majority in the UK Elections 2010 - Today's Chanakya

Press release from Business Wire India
Source: TODAYS CHANAKYA, New Delhi, India
Tuesday, March 16, 2010 11:41 AM IST (06:11 AM GMT)
Editors: General: People, Politics; Business: Media & entertainment
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David Cameron is All Set to Win at least 30+ Seats more than the Majority in the UK Elections 2010 - Today's Chanakya
UK Elections 2010 : Conservative Party to get 30+ seats than Majority - Today's Chanakya, whereas Others Predict Hung Parliament

New Delhi, Delhi, India, Tuesday, March 16, 2010 -- (Business Wire India) -- The race between the Conservative & Labour party has tightened as the General Elections in Britain approaches and voters & Pollsters of Britain increasingly expect a Hung Parliament according to all the Latest polls in UK.

But "Todays Chanakya" New Delhi, India has different findings in our Monthly Opinion Poll which is released over in India. The Opinion Poll was undertaken between 4 March to 10 March 2010 , shows the Top Line figures:

Conservatives 39%, Labour 31%,Liberal Democrats 20% & Other Parties 10%.
The breakdown for Others 10% are : UKIP 2% , Green Party 4%, BNP 1% , SNP 2%

These estimates a uniform National Swing, but in practice there are likely to be regional & local variations.There are certain evidence & indications in our poll analysis that the conservatives may be doing better in their key target seats, which would mean an overall Majority at the National support.If the above figures are translated into the seats according to our experts, the conservative party would have an overall Majority of 30+ seats.

Forecasting the number of seats likely to be won is an even more Hazardous profession than forecasting votes.A small swing in votes can cause a disproportionately large change in seats where most of the Psephologist's seems to have got their "Maths" wrong.

The uniform "Swing" concept is above all a tool for estimating the likely relationship between seats & votes but in this General Election of UK, we have noticed some regional & local deviations from uniformity which causes the disproportionate in large change in seats. In British & Australian elections over the last 50 years the results in terms of seats have been extra ordinarily close to those which could have been predicted by assuming a nation wide uniform swing. Over time in each of these countries formula have been developed which reveal a relatively predictable pattern for the different Parties. But there is, however no single relationship that hold good for all the past system or even one country (Britain) at all points in time.

Our Expert in India has the experience of three critical objective analysis of state Assemblies Elections of Tamil Nadu State May 2006 ; Rajasthan State Nov 2003 & Uttar Pradesh State May 2007 where a small difference of two main party vote share tends to cause a disproportionately large change in seats.

In Tamil Nadu state May 2006 : DMK lead alliance raced to a comfortable majority (163 seats) with a vote share of 44.7% votes & AIADMK alliance vote share was 41.1% (69 seats). There was a difference of (44.7% - 40.1%) = 4.6% vote share. The net difference of seats was ( 163 Seats DMK - 69 Seats AIADMK ) = 94 seats : A huge difference in seats. Total seats were 234 in the state assembly.

Similarly is case in Rajasthan Assembly 2003 : BJP got 39.2% votes & Congress party 35.6%. A net small difference of (39.2% - 35.6%) = 3.6% vote share lead. However there was a lead by 64 seats in the total assembly for 200 seats. BJP got 120 seats, Congress 56 seats & Others 24 seats.

And in case of Uttar Pradesh 2007 Elections : BSP = 33% ; SP = 28% & BJP+ = 21% Vote share having won BSP = 211 Seats ; SP = 96 Seats & BJP+ = 49 Seats. A small 5% swing of vote share causes a large disproportionate of seats.

So the objectives of this poll through the observations mentioned above indicates the major polling agencies in UK failed to gauge the seat predictions.

Todays Chanakya, New Delhi , India interviewed a random sample of 1800 adults aged 18+ on 04 to 10 March 2010 conducted across Britain.The results have been weighted to the profile of all adults which were interviewed : All expressing to an intention to vote & saying likely to vote : Adjusted.

The predictions of David Cameron is set to win at least 30+ seat of Majority in General Elections, brings us to the question of who is likely to be right. An Indian Psephologist or different UK Agencies.Several Experts in India have said that you can not judge at all until an election is over. But the Pollster who is consistently different from all the others is more likely to be wrong. Remember in UK 1997 Elections, ICM were consistently different from other companies & turned out to be correct but in 2005 ICM foretold Michael Howard's late swing in polls - failed.

Kindly note that for the past month of February 2010 all the polls have been moving in the same direction with Labour party closing the gap on the conservatives party. But the gap of 7% between them will be sufficient for the conservatives to have Simple Majority in the coming General elections 2010. As per our latest poll this gap is of +8% difference, with Margin of Error ± 1.5%

About TODAYS CHANAKYA

Todays Chanakya is the registered TradeMark of RNB Research. We were the only one in India who predicted Congress victory for 200 seats in Lok Sabha 2009 and our analysis was covered in Electronic as well as print media during Lok Sabha 2009.

RNB Research is one of the Asia's leading full service market research agency with offices in India, China, UAE, UK & USA.We have developed 11 models of research exclusively for Asian Markets based on our 15 years of Extensive research analysis.

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To view the UK Elections 2010, please click on the link given below:

UK Elections 2010
For picture(s)/data to illustrate this release click below:

http://www.BusinessWireIndia.com/attachments/UK_Elections_2010.pdf
UK_Elections_2010.pdf


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KEYWORDS
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